Aquest informe ha estat elaborat per l’observatori econòmic EIXOS, per encàrrec d’API.cat, amb la finalitat de tenir un escenari clar del mercat immobiliari de locals comercials a les principals ciutats espanyoles.
Hi ha 12 ciutats espanyoles de més de 300mil habitants: Madrid, Barcelona, València, Saragossa, Màlaga, Alacant, Múrcia, Sevilla, Bilbao, Palma, Las Palmas i Còrdova. Juntes, sumen una població total de 10M d’habitants, aproximadament el 20% de la població espanyola, i un parc de més de 250mil locals comercials, aproximadament un 25% del parc total espanyol.
Personal de camp de la xarxa de col·laboradors geogràfics de l’observatori Eixos.cat ha visitat tots i cada un dels més de 250mil locals comercials, abans, durant i després de la pandèmia, per a poder proveïr les dades necessàries per a fer aquest informe.
Sistema d’Avaluació d’Actius Comercials. Location, Location, Location.
A partir de la ubicació geogràfica de cada local s’han establert les condicions de l’entorn comercial en un radi de 250m. Per a cada local, s’ha establert el nombre i el grau d’ocupació comercial dels locals de l’entorn, la composició i l’especialització comercial de les activitats a dins del radi d’anàlisi.
Així, un local que es trobi en un entorn amb més de 40 establiments oberts, una ocupació de locals per sobre del 80% i una presència d’establiments de no-quotidià per sobre del 30%, ha estat qualificat amb una A, distintiu de les localitzacions de màxima qualitat. Per contra, un local a un entorn amb més de 40 locals i desertització comercial severa (ocupació <70%) ha estat classificat amb una D. I, així, successivament per a tots i cada un dels 250mil locals.
Per a simplificar els càlculs i també la lectura de resultats, s’ha agregat els locals en hexàgons de 500m de diàmetre, d’aproximadament 0,2 km2, i s’ha qualificat l’entorn geogràfic definit per l’hexàgon i assignat la qualificació a cada un dels locals que es trobaven al seu interior.
En total, han estat qualificats més de 2.200 hexàgons a les 12 ciutats, que representen una àrea geogràfica de gairebé 500km2.
Finalment, la qualificació del parc de locals comercials estudiats resta així:
20% localització màxima qualitat
35% localització bona qualitat
20% localització regular
25% localització poc favorable o dolenta
Més de la meitat de locals comercials són a una localització bona o excel·lent, una cinquena part a una localització regular i una quarta part són a una localització poc favorable o dolenta.
Resultats per ciutat. El joc està molt repartit, hi ha lliga.
A les 12 ciutats estudiades hi trobem almenys dos hexàgons amb categoria màxima. O, el que és el mateix, hi trobem una àrea comercial de gairebé mig kilòmetre quadrat i almenys un miler de locals comercials a un entorn comercial excel·lent.
A Palma hi trobem l’hexàgon millor puntuat dels 2.200. A Sevilla, el segon millor puntuat. Bilbao, Múrcia, Saragossa i Màlaga tenen hexàgons al top 20 dels millors puntuats. Un senyal inequívoc de que el joc comercial es troba molt repartit i que, per tant, hi ha lliga.
Si bé trobem ciutats amb més hexàgons de baixa qualitat comercial (D,E,F) també és cert que això es deu més a l’urbanisme i a la topografia que no pas a cap condicionant sòcio-econòmic. Per tant, la desocupació de locals excessiva no és un problema generalitzable a totes les ciutats ni, dins de cada ciutat concreta, a tota la ciutat.
L’àrea del centre històric de Palma té una elevada presència d’establiments de no-quotidià: equipaments per a la persona, equipaments per a la llar, cultura i lleure.
Conté tres hexàgons de màxima qualificació i que formen part del top 20, un dels quals (Hex 19794) n’ocupa la primera posició.
Locals buits i habitatge. Dos pardals d’un sol tret?
Els darrers anys s’ha sentit molt a parlar de com hi havia massa locals buits i de com, si transformàvem els buits persistents en habitatge, això podria incrementar significativament el parc de vivenda i, alhora, reduir la presència de locals buits a les nostres ciutats. Dos pardals d’un sol tret.
Un dels resultats d’aquest informe ha estat valorar amb dades i indicadors prou exhaustius què hi havia de cert en aquesta tesi o si, pel contrari, era un mite.
Dels més de 250mil locals analitzats a les 12 ciutats, uns 50mil han estat identificats com a tancats o buits. D’aquests, aproximadament 20mil han estat qualificats amb un entorn comercial poc o gens favorable (D, E, F) i, per tant, com a locals buits difícils d’ocupar o buits persistents. I, d’aquests buits persistents, hem suposat que menys del 50% podrien assolir una cèdul·la d’habitabilitat per tal d’arribar a ser habitatge. Tot i que pensem que hem estat molt generosos i que el percentatge de locals aptes per a l’ús residencial seria en realitat molt menor del 50%, hem preferit fer els càlculs amb una hipòtesi optimista. Al capdavall, si amb la hipòtesi més optimista el nombre de locals no era significatiu, tindríem un resultat encara més sòlid.
Per tant, finalment, tindríem uns 10mil locals comercials buits persistents candidats a ser transformats en habitatge. Aquests locals candidats representarien el 4% del parc de 250mil locals i el 0,11% del parc total de 5M d’habitatges de les 12 ciutats estudiades. Concretament, a Barcelona, tots els locals buits persistents representarien el 8% de l’oferta immobiliària d’un sol any, i menys del 1% de l’oferta d’una dècada.
La conclusió que hom pot treure d’aquestes dades és doble. D’una banda, els locals buits persistents no són un problema sistèmic a les 12 ciutats estudiades. L’escenari varia força de ciutat en ciutat i la presència de buits persistents té molt a veure amb l’urbanisme i la topografia de cada àrea geogràfica. De l’altra, l’impacte que tindrien tots els locals buits persistents, convertits en habitatge en el mercat immobiliari de vivenda, seria reduït (menys de l’1%) i puntual (fins que s’esgotessin els buits persistents).
Per tant, els locals buits persistents de totes 12 ciutats, ni són un problema sistèmic, ni són la solució al problema de la manca d’habitatge.
A Barcelona hi ha un parc de 76.500 locals, dels quals 14.000 són tancats o buits i, d’aquests, només 2.200 son buits persistents.
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