Fa uns dies el Tot Barcelona publicava un article on parlava de sagnia i estancament comercial del carrer de Ferran. Afirmava que la causa principal d’aquesta decadència comercial era l’impacte de la pandèmia durant els darrers dos anys.
Hem volgut fer una validació de la informació, basada en dades i en indicadors que maneguem habitualment a l’observatori.
Disposem de dades de composició comercial del carrer de Ferran, provinents de diverses captures que hem realitzat en visites successives al llarg dels darrers onze anys, des de 2011 fins a 2022.
Per tal de fer la validació de la informació donada, hem fet diverses comprovacions.
En primer lloc, hem observat la seqüència històrica de la composició comercial en dos trams. Un, pre-pandèmia, l’interval de 7 anys que va de 2011 a 2018. L’altre, post pandèmia, amb dades de 2022.
Per a fer-ho, hem analitzat la composició comercial del carrer amb dos indicadors de salut comercial prou eloqüents. D’una banda, l’Índex d’Aprofitament del Teixit Comercial (IATC), que mesura el percentatge de locals ocupats, respecte del total de locals disponibles al carrer Ferran. De l’altra, hem fet servir l’Índex d’Atracció Comercial (IAC), que mesura la presència percentual, respecte del total d’establiments d’equipaments per a la persona, establiments equipaments per a la llar i de cultura i lleure.
Tots dos indicadors són vells coneguts en el nostre dia a dia d’observació del comerç, amb uns llindars de comportament ben definits i que parlen alt i clar d’un escenari de salut comercial.
Pel que fa a l’IATC, té una línia vermella molt clara. Si tenim una ocupació per sobre del 80%, sabem que ens trobem en un escenari amb bona ocupació comercial. Si l’ocupació comercial cau per sota del 80%, sabem que tenim un problema de desertització incipient.
L’IAC té un comportament una mica més difús, amb dos llindars més o menys crítics. Si la presència del comerç no-quotidià supera el 30% del total de les activitats del carrer, i no tenim desertització, ens trobem a un eix comercial de primer ordre. Un eix “prime”. Si el no-quotidià es troba entre el 20 i el 30%, el mix comercial del carrer és el d’un eix comercial secundari. Si el no-quotidià cau del 20%, aleshores hi ha un predomini clar del quotidià, i ens trobem a un eix de proximitat de zona residencial o bé a un eix “turistificat”.
Evolució de l’ocupació de locals al carrer Ferran 2011-2022
Al 2011 hi havia 73 locals al carrer Ferran, 71 dels quals eren oberts i allotjaven activitat comercial i 2 eren tancats o buits. L’Índex d’Aprofitament del Teixit Comercial se situava en IATC 97,26.
Al 2018, set anys després, ens trobem un escenari força semblant. De 70 locals (dos locals que hi havia al 2011 havien estat fusionats en un de sol), 2 locals eren tancats o buits. L’ocupació comercial es mantenia pràcticament igual, amb IATC 97,14.
Per tant, fins aquí, poca variació.
És entre 2018 i 2022, amb la pandèmia pel mig des de març de 2020, que observem un salt qualitatiu en l’ocupació. Al 2022 trobem 71 locals, 54 dels quals actius i 17 locals tancats o buits. Això suposa un increment de gairebé el 1.000% de la desocupació de locals.
Amb un escenari de IATC 76,06, clarament per sota del 80% d’ocupació, ens trobem que ara al carrer Ferran hi ha desertització comercial.
Evolució del mix comercial al carrer Ferran 2011-2022
Pel que fa a l’evolució de la composició comercial, hem avaluat la presència del clúster del no-quotidià.
Al 2011 al carrer Ferran hi havia 20 botigues d’equipaments per a la persona (articles esportius, roba i complements, sabates, joies, etc.), 3 d’equipaments per a la llar (mobles i decoració, ferreteria, basar, etc.) i 4 establiments de cultura i lleure (llibreries, botigues d’audiovisuals, teatres, etc.). Un total de 27 establiments de no-quotidià, més d’un terç de l’oferta comercial del carrer (Índex d’Atracció Comercial – IAC 38,03).
Al 2018 hi havia 17 botigues d’equipaments per a la persona, 3 d’equipaments per a la llar i 3 de cultura i lleure. Un total de 23 establiments, quatre menys que al 2011, però amb una presència clarament per sobre del terç de l’oferta comercial del carrer (IAC 33,82).
És al 2022 que observem una variació notable de la presència del no-quotidià al carrer Ferran. El tancament de 6 botigues d’equipaments per a la persona i de les tres d’equipaments per a la llar fa que, a l’escenari post-pandèmia, la presència del no-quotidià quedi per sota del 30% (IAC 25,93). Això, per sí sol, no seria motiu d’alarma, almenys no sense afegir el fet que ara hi ha desertització comercial (IATC 76,06).
La decadència era certa
Hem de concloure que el carrer Ferran està en decadència comercial com a conseqüència de l’impacte de la pandèmia sobre els seus establiments.
Del 2011 al 2018 era un eix comercial “prime”, de primer ordre segons els barems que fem servir a l’observatori Eixos.
Per a qualificar de “prime” un eix comercial, seguint els nostres estàndards, ha de reunir tres condicions:
Tenir 40 o més de 40 negocis actius.
Tenir un 80% o més de locals comercials ocupats, amb activitat (IATC ≥80).
Tenir almenys un 30% d’establiments de comerç no-quotidià (equipaments per a la persona, equipaments per a la llar i cultura i lleure).
Durant el període 2011-2018 l’eix del carrer Ferran acompleix clarament amb tots tres requeriments, amb petites variacions.
Al 2022, per efecte directe de l’impacte de la pandèmia, el carrer Ferran ja no és un eix “prime”.
No arriba al 80% d’ocupació comercial (IATC 76,06) ni assoleix el llindar del 30% de presència d’establiments de comerç no-quotidià (IAC 25,93).
Per tant, els fets descrits per la notícia del Tot Barcelona, des del punt de vista que exposem aquí, són certs i s’ajusten a la realitat.
Referències
Sagnia, muda i estancament del carrer de Ferran. Publicació: Tot Barcelona | Autor: Aiats Agustí
Covid19 Impact on Barcelona Retail. Publicació: Eixos.cat | Autor: David Nogué
Covid-19 Impact on Manhattan Retail. Publicació: Geoawesomeness | Autor: David Nogué
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America: Rationing social contact during the COVID-19 pandemic: Transmission risk and social benefits of US locations. Publicació: PNAS.org | Autors: Seth G. Benzell, Avinash Collis, Christos Nicolaides
MIT News: “Which businesses should be open?“. Publicació: MIT News | Autor: Peter Dizikes
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